365 days of Economic Bloodbath:
By Kashif Khan
In this article we compiling data from govt sources to prove how a common man and business is suffering due to sheer incompetence of the current govt. The facts are in complete contradiction to the tall claims made byPTI before assuming power.
The figures are taken from Pakistan Bureau of Statistics & State Bank of Pak and are based on July 2019 results. We will start with Inflation as this is the main indicator which affects common man the most. CPI & SPI are the tools to gauge this impact (in crude words “mehngaee”).
Inflation: According to Statistics Bureau of Pakistan the inflation in July 2019 (CPI General) has increased by 10.3%. The same was 3.5% back in July 2018 and was 2.91% in July 2017. Astonishing is the increase in SPI 12.16%
CPI is consumer price index and SPI is Sensitive Price Index. SPI is more critical as it is directly linked with living expenses i.e. prices of staple food, fuel, utilities, transport etc. CPI is the more general level of inflation but still very important.
To understand the impact of SPI the price increase in following will help, Onions +59%, Moong dal +49%, Sugar +31% and Gas is on top with whopping +142%. If your gas bill was Rs 2,000 in Jul 2018 it will be Rs 4,840 for July 2019
We will sum up the inflation analysis through this graph available on PBS website. Dark brown line depicts food inflation, look at the spike from Dec-18 to Mar-19 and it’s continued upward trend. This is shocking where 21% of population is already undernourished-(source ADB)
Debt: Let’s look at the borrowing now. Current govt harshly criticises previous govts for increasing national debt. However the numbers are telling us a different story. For Q3 FY-19 the rate of borrowing is increased by 40% compared to FY-17. 23% compared to same period last yr.
Look at the latest table by SBP on borrowing. Look at the debt for FY-17 and compare it with Q3 FY-19. Quarterly movements are telling the real story. Shocking is the YOY growth and percentage of debt to GDP. If they continue like this they will match 70 years debt in 5 years .
Manufacturing Sector: The mishandling of economy is evident through the performance of manufacturing sector. Almost all the main manufacturing sectors of Pak are showing decline compared to year 17-18. This is a real bloodbath of Pak economy
Exports: The Rupee is devalued to a historical record breaking low hoping to increase exports. However this technique fell flat on its face and exports are actually decreased by 1%.
You don’t need to be an economy expert to understand that with a declining manufacturing sector, exports will not grow simply by devaluing the currency.
GDP: All of the above factors are behind the decline of GDP growth. The GDP this year is 2.24% below 2017-18. Alarming is the decline in Agricultural & Manufacturing sector. Those who understand GDP will know that >2% decline is huge exposing a dismal performance of current govt.
Following are the key takeaways from one year’s economic performance of the current govt or dispensation where we are told that “ALL” are on one page!
GDP down by 2%
Exports down by 1%
LSMI down by 3.50%
Debt up by 24% (FY-17 +40%)
Inflation up by 77% (courtesy Kashif Khan)